Track record

Every buy, sell, and watch call I've published — scored against XBI, the biotech index.

+248.4%Best call · ETON
+17.8%Avg buy call
94%Avoids beat XBI
129Active buy calls

As of Aug 21, 2026 · hypothetical editorial record, not investment advice

How to read this page
Buy
A buy call I published — Core = higher conviction.
Spec buy
A speculative buy — higher risk, smaller-size idea.
Avoid
A call to stay away — scored by the loss it sidestepped.
Entry
The stock's closing price the day I published the call.
Now
The latest available closing price.
Return
Percent change from Entry to Now (for avoids, the stock's move since the call).
vs XBI
XBI is the biotech index ETF. This is Return minus XBI's return over the same dates — the value added beyond just buying the index. For avoids, the loss saved vs holding XBI.
Open / Closed
Open = still live. Closed = realized; I flipped the call, calculated return based on that date.

Top buy calls

CallBuyNowReturnvs XBI
ETON Eton Pharmaceuticals Buy $18.22 $63.47 +248.4% +217.6
SYRE Spyre Therapeutics Buy $33.47 $106.49 +218.2% +179.6
DFTX Definium Therapeutics Buy $15.02 $44.91 +199% +168.3
IBRX ImmunityBio Buy $3.02 $7.79 +157.9% +127.3
DRTS Alpha Tau Medical Spec buy $5.90 $14.92 +152.9% +121.8
ADAG Adagene Spec buy $1.84 $4.02 +118.5% +82.1
HELP Cybin Spec buy $6.88 $12.59 +83% +78.3
CLYM Climb Bio Buy $8.78 $17.28 +96.8% +68.2
CRDL Cardiol Therapeutics Spec buy $1.02 $1.86 +82.4% +51.4
ORKA Oruka Therapeutics Buy $63.18 $107.96 +70.9% +48.9

What I told you to avoid

CallSinceStockSaved vs XBI
RVPH Reviva Pharmaceuticals Avoid Jan 26, 2026 -92% +121.7
APVO Aptevo Therapeutics Avoid Jun 16, 2026 -41% +63.4
NRSN NeuroSense Therapeutics Avoid Jul 13, 2026 -48.5% +55.2
VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Avoid Feb 17, 2026 -14.8% +47.8
MRKR Marker Therapeutics Avoid Mar 16, 2026 -1.4% +35.2
IXHL Incannex Healthcare Avoid Mar 16, 2026 +7.9% +25.9
LGVN Longeveron Avoid May 11, 2026 +0.8% +22.2
ACTU Actuate Therapeutics Avoid Jul 17, 2026 -11.8% +19.2

Calls that paid off

Buy calls I closed in the green — including takeouts. Entry → exit, realized.

CallBoughtExitedReturnvs XBI
FBRX Forte Biosciences Acquired Apr 6, 2026 Jul 28, 2026 +189.9% +173.6
CRNX Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Acquired Apr 2, 2026 Jul 6, 2026 +128.3% +103.6
ATAI Atai Beckley Acquired Dec 24, 2025 Jul 16, 2026 +70.6% +50.3
APGE Apogee Therapeutics Acquired May 5, 2026 Jun 22, 2026 +59.1% +50.1
ENTA Enanta Pharmaceuticals Buy Feb 17, 2026 Jul 2, 2026 +9% -19.7

Every call

Call Entry Now Return vs XBI Status Opened
ETON Eton Pharmaceuticals Buy $18.22 $63.47 +248.4% +217.6 Open Feb 19, 2026
SYRE Spyre Therapeutics Buy $33.47 $106.49 +218.2% +179.6 Open Dec 18, 2025
FBRX Forte Biosciences Buy $26.44 $76.65 +189.9% +173.6 Closed Jul 28, 2026 Apr 6, 2026
DFTX Definium Therapeutics Buy $15.02 $44.91 +199% +168.3 Open Jan 14, 2026
IBRX ImmunityBio Buy $3.02 $7.79 +157.9% +127.3 Open Jan 14, 2026
DRTS Alpha Tau Medical Spec buy $5.90 $14.92 +152.9% +121.8 Open Jan 7, 2026
RVPH Reviva Pharmaceuticals Avoid $6.04 $0.48 -92% +121.7 Open Jan 26, 2026
CRNX Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Buy $37.23 $85.00 +128.3% +103.6 Closed Jul 6, 2026 Apr 2, 2026
GOSS Gossamer Bio Avoid $0.43 $0.15 -63.9%* +94.8 Closed Aug 22, 2026 Mar 2, 2026
ADAG Adagene Spec buy $1.84 $4.02 +118.5% +82.1 Open Jan 2, 2026
HELP Cybin Spec buy $6.88 $12.59 +83% +78.3 Open Jun 29, 2026
CLYM Climb Bio Buy $8.78 $17.28 +96.8% +68.2 Open Apr 29, 2026
APVO Aptevo Therapeutics Avoid $4.54 $2.68 -41% +63.4 Open Jun 16, 2026
ACTU Actuate Therapeutics Avoid $6.49 $2.89 -55.5% +62.2 Closed May 12, 2026 Jan 7, 2026
NRSN NeuroSense Therapeutics Avoid $0.73 $0.38 -48.5% +55.2 Open Jul 13, 2026
CRDL Cardiol Therapeutics Spec buy $1.02 $1.86 +82.4% +51.4 Open Mar 2, 2026
ATAI Atai Beckley Buy $4.19 $7.15 +70.6% +50.3 Closed Jul 16, 2026 Dec 24, 2025
APGE Apogee Therapeutics Buy $83.29 $132.55 +59.1% +50.1 Closed Jun 22, 2026 May 5, 2026
ORKA Oruka Therapeutics Buy $63.18 $107.96 +70.9% +48.9 Open May 13, 2026
REPL Replimune Group Buy $8.69 $14.77 +70% +48.7 Open May 29, 2026
VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Avoid $6.20 $5.28 -14.8% +47.8 Open Feb 17, 2026
GHRS GH Research Buy $15.75 $28.33 +79.9% +47.6 Open Jan 20, 2026
CGEM Cullinan Therapeutics Buy $12.57 $21.68 +72.5% +46.5 Open Jan 22, 2026
CING Cingulate Avoid $5.84 $5.09 -12.8% +45.4 Closed Aug 14, 2026 Mar 30, 2026
TVTX Travere Therapeutics Buy $40.29 $65.71 +63.1% +42.8 Open Apr 20, 2026
NRIX Nurix Therapeutics Buy $15.91 $26.72 +67.9% +42.4 Open Apr 13, 2026
CAPR Capricor Therapeutics Spec buy $4.17 $6.29 +50.8% +41.7 Open Aug 4, 2026
PCSA Processa Pharmaceuticals Avoid $2.87 $2.03 -29.3% +41.3 Closed Jul 29, 2026 Apr 13, 2026
IMVT Immunovant Buy $26.08 $44.37 +70.1% +40 Open Feb 2, 2026
CMPS COMPASS Pathways Buy $7.85 $13.33 +69.8% +39.3 Open Feb 23, 2026
ABSI Absci Buy $5.90 $9.55 +61.9% +38.8 Open May 8, 2026
MRKR Marker Therapeutics Avoid $1.41 $1.39 -1.4% +35.2 Open Mar 16, 2026
VOR Vor Biopharma Spec buy $14.63 $23.36 +59.7% +32.9 Open May 15, 2026
ARTV Artiva Biotherapeutics Spec buy $6.80 $10.93 +60.7% +31.7 Open Jun 8, 2026
IXHL Incannex Healthcare Avoid $3.31 $3.57 +7.9% +25.9 Open Mar 16, 2026
OVID Ovid Therapeutics Spec buy $1.81 $2.80 +54.7% +25.8 Open Jan 27, 2026
DYN Dyne Therapeutics Buy $16.58 $26.10 +57.4% +25.1 Open Jan 20, 2026
LGVN Longeveron Avoid $0.84 $0.84 +0.8% +22.2 Open May 11, 2026
RNAC Cartesian Therapeutics Buy $6.93 $10.04 +44.9% +21.6 Open May 27, 2026
NVCT Nuvectis Pharma Spec buy $17.55 $23.56 +34.2% +21.5 Open Jun 23, 2026
AUTL Autolus Therapeutics Spec buy $1.82 $2.41 +32.4% +19.9 Open Aug 3, 2026
XNCR Xencor Spec buy $21.49 $27.80 +29.4% +19.9 Open Jul 30, 2026
ACTU Actuate Therapeutics Avoid $1.44 $1.27 -11.8% +19.2 Open Jul 17, 2026
CGON CG Oncology Buy $53.81 $79.81 +48.3% +18.9 Open Jan 23, 2026
TTRX Turn Therapeutics Spec buy $6.42 $9.46 +47.4% +17.6 Open Jun 2, 2026
ZYME Zymeworks Spec buy $23.54 $28.67 +21.8% +16.5 Open Aug 7, 2026
NGNE Neurogene Spec buy $32.18 $38.63 +20% +15.9 Open Jun 30, 2026
HELP Cybin Avoid $5.52 $4.32 -21.7% +15.2 Closed Mar 30, 2026 Mar 9, 2026
ACRS Aclaris Therapeutics Buy $4.47 $6.41 +43.4% +14.8 Open Apr 29, 2026
SPRB Spruce Biosciences Spec buy $41.60 $51.58 +24% +13.3 Open Jul 28, 2026
PHIO Phio Pharmaceuticals Avoid $1.07 $1.18 +10.3% +12.7 Open May 8, 2026
KYMR Kymera Therapeutics Buy $87.35 $119.80 +37.1% +11.4 Open Apr 9, 2026
CYDY CytoDyn Avoid $0.37 $0.32 -13.5% +11.1 Closed Apr 27, 2026 Apr 21, 2026
KAPA Kairos Pharma Avoid $0.31 $0.29 -6.5% +10 Open Aug 18, 2026
MDNAF Medicenna Therapeutics Avoid $0.40 $0.34 -14.9% +8.9 Closed May 19, 2026 May 14, 2026
ELTX Elicio Therapeutics Avoid $3.22 $3.04 -5.6% +8.9 Open Jul 2, 2026
ARDX Ardelyx Avoid $4.00 $3.89 -2.7% +8.1 Open Aug 7, 2026
GRCE Grace Therapeutics Avoid $2.30 $2.10 -8.7% +7.1 Closed Apr 28, 2026 Apr 24, 2026
ADCT ADC Therapeutics Avoid $1.01 $1.00 -1.3% +6.6 Open Aug 14, 2026
SLDB Solid Biosciences Spec buy $8.39 $9.30 +10.8% +5.5 Open Aug 7, 2026
BCTX BriaCell Therapeutics Avoid $3.27 $4.07 +24.5% +5.3 Open Jun 2, 2026
IMMX Immix Biopharma Buy $10.66 $13.66 +28.1% +5.3 Open May 12, 2026
CHRS Coherus Oncology Spec buy $1.26 $1.42 +12.3% +5 Open Aug 6, 2026
PEPG PepGen Spec buy $2.85 $3.14 +10.2% +4.9 Open Aug 7, 2026
XERS Xeris Biopharma Spec buy $7.93 $8.70 +9.7% +4.4 Open Aug 7, 2026
ZBIO Zenas BioPharma Spec buy $29.51 $32.29 +9.4% +4.1 Open Aug 14, 2026
ALLO Allogene Therapeutics Spec buy $1.90 $2.09 +10% +3.9 Open Jul 15, 2026
CBIO Crescent Biopharma Buy $15.67 $17.15 +9.4% +3.4 Open Jul 15, 2026
CCCC C4 Therapeutics Buy $3.17 $4.00 +26.2% +3.3 Open May 12, 2026
EVMN Evommune Avoid $13.79 $14.02 +1.6% +2.5 Open Jun 30, 2026
AMLX Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Spec buy $38.60 $38.66 +0.2% +2.4 Open Aug 19, 2026
KURA Kura Oncology Buy $9.22 $11.89 +29% +2.1 Open May 15, 2026
FBIO Fortress Biotech Spec buy $2.27 $2.87 +26.4% +1.9 Open Apr 27, 2026
LEGN Legend Biotech Spec buy $20.65 $21.82 +5.7% +1.7 Open Aug 12, 2026
SION Sionna Therapeutics Avoid $5.10 $5.29 +3.7% +1.1 Open Aug 11, 2026
PYPD PolyPid Spec buy $4.78 $5.10 +6.7% +1 Open Aug 13, 2026
UNCY Unicycive Therapeutics Avoid $5.13 $5.63 +9.7% +0.4 Open Jul 27, 2026
OCS Oculis Holding Spec buy $11.99 $13.09 +9.1% 0 Open Aug 4, 2026
IRD Opus Genetics Spec buy $3.71 $4.05 +9.2% 0 Open Aug 4, 2026
ZNTL Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Spec buy $3.83 $3.83 0% 0 Open Aug 21, 2026
RCUS Arcus Biosciences Spec buy $23.86 $30.34 +27.2% -0.5 Open Jun 3, 2026
AKTS Aktis Oncology Buy $19.73 $24.07 +22% -0.8 Open May 12, 2026
AGMB Agomab Therapeutics Spec buy $11.94 $13.25 +11% -1.7 Open Jun 23, 2026
EXEL Exelixis Spec buy $41.36 $54.08 +30.8% -2.1 Open Jan 30, 2026
NBP NovaBridge Biosciences Spec buy $1.96 $2.00 +1.9% -2.2 Open Jun 30, 2026
CLDX Celldex Therapeutics Buy $33.86 $40.38 +19.3% -3.1 Open Apr 16, 2026
VSTM Verastem Spec buy $6.74 $6.89 +2.2% -3.1 Open Aug 7, 2026
TENX Tenax Therapeutics Avoid $1.62 $1.75 +8% -3.2 Open Aug 11, 2026
GRCE Grace Therapeutics Spec buy $2.12 $2.20 +3.8% -3.5 Open Aug 6, 2026
CRVO CervoMed Avoid $2.25 $2.86 +27.1% -4.5 Closed Aug 10, 2026 Jun 10, 2026
SANA Sana Biotechnology Spec buy $3.26 $3.91 +19.9% -4.6 Open Apr 27, 2026
RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Buy $24.93 $25.83 +3.6% -4.7 Open Aug 5, 2026
ARVN Arvinas Spec buy $9.00 $9.37 +4.1% -5 Open Aug 4, 2026
CRVS Corvus Pharmaceuticals Buy $11.50 $14.46 +25.7% -5 Open May 19, 2026
ENTA Enanta Pharmaceuticals Spec buy $13.50 $13.47 -0.2% -5.1 Open Aug 12, 2026
JANX Janux Therapeutics Buy $14.11 $17.39 +23.2% -5.3 Open Apr 29, 2026
SABS SAB Biotherapeutics Spec buy $3.67 $3.78 +3.1% -5.9 Open Jul 16, 2026
NRXP NRX Pharmaceuticals Spec buy $3.03 $3.56 +17.5% -7.1 Open Apr 27, 2026
SGMT Sagimet Biosciences Spec buy $8.75 $10.25 +17.1% -9.2 Open Apr 28, 2026
JBIO Jade Biosciences Spec buy $17.75 $21.34 +20.2% -9.5 Open Jun 2, 2026
PCSA Processa Pharmaceuticals Spec buy $2.03 $2.08 +2.5% -9.6 Open Jul 29, 2026
KPRX Kiora Pharmaceuticals Spec buy $2.32 $2.66 +14.7% -9.9 Open Apr 27, 2026
OMER Omeros Buy $15.71 $19.27 +22.7% -9.9 Open Dec 26, 2025
GERN Geron Spec buy $1.57 $1.52 -3.2% -10.5 Open Aug 6, 2026
PMN ProMIS Neurosciences Spec buy $14.52 $14.51 -0.1% -10.7 Open Jul 28, 2026
LENZ LENZ Therapeutics Spec buy $5.04 $4.68 -7.1% -11.1 Open Aug 12, 2026
QURE uniQure Spec buy $48.16 $44.39 -7.8% -12.5 Closed Jun 22, 2026 Jun 17, 2026
CNTB Connect Biopharma Spec buy $2.54 $2.36 -7.1% -12.7 Open Aug 13, 2026
ELTX Elicio Therapeutics Avoid $4.08 $4.71 +15.4% -13.2 Closed Jun 17, 2026 Jun 15, 2026
ARTV Artiva Biotherapeutics Spec buy $10.60 $8.55 -19.3% -13.4 Closed May 19, 2026 May 11, 2026
GPCR Structure Therapeutics Buy $43.56 $49.09 +12.7% -13.7 Open Apr 28, 2026
ADMA Adma Biologics Avoid $9.16 $10.06 +9.8% -13.7 Closed Aug 6, 2026 Jul 6, 2026
BLTE Belite Bio Spec buy $178.94 $161.06 -10% -14 Open Aug 12, 2026
LGVN Longeveron Spec buy $0.89 $0.84 -5.6% -14.4 Closed May 11, 2026 Mar 16, 2026
BCTX BriaCell Therapeutics Spec buy $4.47 $3.76 -15.9% -15.6 Closed Feb 23, 2026 Feb 2, 2026
ALLO Allogene Therapeutics Spec buy $2.25 $2.10 -6.7% -16.3 Closed Jun 22, 2026 Apr 27, 2026
CATX Perspective Therapeutics Buy $2.73 $3.30 +20.9% -17.1 Open Jan 5, 2026
ATHE Alterity Therapeutics Buy $4.29 $4.67 +8.9% -17.3 Open Jun 9, 2026
HELP Cybin Spec buy $6.73 $5.52 -18% -18.1 Closed Mar 9, 2026 Feb 23, 2026
XENE Xenon Pharmaceuticals Buy $57.40 $60.77 +5.9% -18.3 Open May 4, 2026
ACRV Acrivon Therapeutics Buy $1.93 $2.21 +14.5% -19.5 Open Jan 8, 2026
ABOS Acumen Pharmaceuticals Spec buy $2.71 $3.16 +16.6% -19.6 Open Mar 23, 2026
ENTA Enanta Pharmaceuticals Buy $13.86 $15.11 +9% -19.7 Closed Jul 2, 2026 Feb 17, 2026
COGT Cogent Biosciences Buy $37.00 $36.73 -0.7% -21 Open Apr 20, 2026
MPLT MapLight Therapeutics Spec buy $12.92 $11.21 -13.2% -21.5 Open Aug 5, 2026
ERAS Erasca Spec buy $11.56 $9.11 -21.2% -24.6 Closed Apr 29, 2026 Feb 11, 2026
VIR Vir Biotechnology Buy $8.99 $9.78 +8.8% -25 Open Mar 25, 2026
RYTM Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Buy $102.59 $110.00 +7.2% -25.1 Open Jan 20, 2026
VERA Vera Therapeutics Buy $31.26 $32.27 +3.2% -26.5 Open Jun 2, 2026
TNGX Tango Therapeutics Buy $24.87 $23.88 -4% -26.9 Open May 14, 2026
RCKT Rocket Pharmaceuticals Buy $3.48 $3.51 +0.9% -27.7 Open Apr 29, 2026
NTLA Intellia Therapeutics Spec buy $13.20 $12.84 -2.7% -29.1 Open Apr 28, 2026
SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics Spec buy $17.79 $18.79 +5.6% -29.3 Open Feb 13, 2026
TSHA Taysha Gene Therapies Buy $6.46 $6.09 -5.7% -30.3 Open Apr 27, 2026
KYTX Kyverna Therapeutics Buy $8.99 $8.42 -6.3% -30.9 Open Apr 27, 2026
IPSC Century Therapeutics Spec buy $2.12 $2.07 -2.4% -31.4 Open Jun 8, 2026
CBIO Crescent Biopharma Buy $18.52 $15.31 -17.3% -32.7 Closed Jul 14, 2026 May 11, 2026
MAIA MAIA Biotechnology Spec buy $1.31 $1.39 +6.1% -33.4 Open Mar 30, 2026
BMEA Biomea Fusion Spec buy $1.53 $1.37 -10.5% -36.8 Open Apr 28, 2026
ARVN Arvinas Spec buy $10.78 $7.74 -28.2% -37.5 Closed Jun 22, 2026 May 4, 2026
CRBU Caribou Biosciences Spec buy $1.94 $1.66 -14.4% -37.5 Open May 8, 2026
MDNAF Medicenna Therapeutics Spec buy $0.33 $0.29 -11.8% -37.7 Open May 22, 2026
ANAB AnaptysBio Spec buy $66.59 $57.74 -13.3% -37.9 Open Apr 27, 2026
CGTX Cognition Therapeutics Spec buy $1.08 $1.00 -7.8% -38.2 Open Mar 9, 2026
VKTX Viking Therapeutics Buy $36.41 $33.89 -6.9% -39.6 Open Dec 23, 2025
GLUE Monte Rosa Therapeutics Buy $17.50 $14.30 -18.3% -40.4 Open Apr 14, 2026
VTVT vTv Therapeutics Spec buy $36.41 $33.26 -8.7% -40.9 Open Feb 4, 2026
OCGN Ocugen Spec buy $1.65 $1.39 -15.8% -41.7 Open Jan 22, 2026
CABA Cabaletta Bio Buy $3.83 $3.13 -18.3% -42.4 Open May 4, 2026
GRCE Grace Therapeutics Spec buy $3.83 $2.30 -39.9% -44.2 Closed Apr 24, 2026 Jan 26, 2026
AKBA Akebia Therapeutics Spec buy $1.16 $0.91 -21.8% -44.8 Open May 8, 2026
CUE Cue Biopharma Spec buy $28.62 $23.98 -16.2% -45.9 Open Jun 2, 2026
DBVT DBV Technologies Buy $20.27 $14.86 -26.7% -47.4 Closed Jul 16, 2026 Dec 22, 2025
CLNN Clene Buy $5.18 $4.32 -16.6% -50.3 Open Jan 12, 2026
SMMT Summit Therapeutics Buy $15.94 $13.16 -17.4% -50.3 Open Feb 20, 2026
IMTX Immatics Buy $10.45 $8.93 -14.5% -50.9 Open Jan 2, 2026
LRMR Larimar Therapeutics Buy $5.23 $4.18 -20.1% -51 Open Mar 2, 2026
GLSI Greenwich LifeSciences Spec buy $23.67 $16.67 -29.6% -53.8 Open Jun 4, 2026
VRDN Viridian Therapeutics Buy $29.17 $24.29 -16.7% -54 Open Feb 5, 2026
IMRX Immuneering Spec buy $6.66 $5.30 -20.4% -54.7 Open Dec 29, 2025
CYDY CytoDyn Spec buy $0.32 $0.21 -34.4% -58.9 Open Apr 27, 2026
KTTA Pasithea Therapeutics Buy $0.77 $0.54 -30% -59.8 Open May 18, 2026
INAB IN8bio Spec buy $1.56 $0.98 -37.2% -60.4 Closed Aug 7, 2026 Jun 2, 2026
ALT Altimmune Buy $4.09 $3.11 -24% -61.9 Open Jan 5, 2026
STRO Sutro Biopharma Buy $33.59 $21.04 -37.4% -61.9 Open Apr 27, 2026
CTMX CytomX Therapeutics Spec buy $4.46 $3.28 -26.5% -62.6 Open Mar 23, 2026
BIOA BioAge Labs Buy $15.34 $9.48 -38.2% -68 Open May 18, 2026
GANX Gain Therapeutics Buy $3.19 $2.00 -37.1% -68.8 Open Dec 22, 2025
LXEO Lexeo Therapeutics Spec buy $8.12 $4.88 -39.9% -73.6 Open Jan 12, 2026
ERAS Erasca Avoid $9.11 $17.90 +96.5% -76 Closed Jul 13, 2026 Apr 29, 2026
NGEN NervGen Pharma Spec buy $3.85 $1.86 -51.7% -76.3 Open Apr 27, 2026
REPL Replimune Group Avoid $4.76 $8.69 +82.6% -77 Closed May 29, 2026 Apr 10, 2026
TARA Protara Therapeutics Spec buy $7.43 $3.85 -48.2% -78.7 Open Feb 23, 2026
EYPT EyePoint Buy $13.34 $5.32 -60.1% -87.2 Open May 1, 2026
MIST Milestone Pharmaceuticals Buy $2.35 $1.05 -55% -90.4 Open Dec 15, 2025
GUTS Fractyl Health Spec buy $2.09 $0.78 -62.7% -93.8 Open Jan 7, 2026
WVE Wave Life Sciences Buy $13.44 $5.29 -60.6% -94.8 Open Mar 3, 2026
QURE uniQure Avoid $17.99 $48.16 +167.7% -158.1 Closed Jun 17, 2026 Mar 9, 2026

On my watch list

  • Elite molluscum data and a clean common-warts competitive setup are offset by a going-concern balance sheet that cannot reach the mid-2027 catalyst on committed capital, a ~$13M shelf ceiling, and a Chairman holding a first lien plus a 16% IRR catch-up that triggers on commercial success.

  • ACI-19764 cleared first-in-human with confirmed CSF penetration, dose-dependent IL-1β inhibition, and a 4x lower-than-predicted therapeutic dose, upgrading the second shot on goal, but VacSYn week-100 remains the decisive catalyst and no owned asset has efficacy data.

    Latest note · Aug 20, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jun 1, 2026
  • Q3 European revenue of $8,700 on 750 units with product expiring in the channel is the first hard commercial data point and it points the wrong way, challenging the entire U.S. ramp thesis while going-concern language survives even the $55M raise.

    Latest note · Aug 19, 2026 ↗ · watching since May 27, 2026
  • Strong biology and productive platform, but Lineage owns only ~half the economics of a lead asset it does not control on a timeline it cannot influence; revisit only on Roche's public disclosure of intent to advance OpRegen into a controlled multicenter Phase 2/3.

  • Cash compressed to $10.8M with burn accelerating, going-concern language unchanged, and the pivotal POC 1 placebo-controlled unblinding conspicuously absent from the update, while the stock has rallied 32.9% on regulatory paperwork — making current levels the least favorable entry point in the cycle.

    Latest note · Aug 15, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jun 25, 2026
  • Auditors issued a formal going-concern warning with $79.4M cash and ~$17M/quarter burn, but PYNNACLE enrollment is complete and the market cap trades below cash; the stance stays Watch until the financing event resolves the capital structure.

    Latest note · Aug 15, 2026 ↗ · watching since Feb 16, 2026
  • The $150M ATM bridges the structural dilution gap and de-links launch spending from the approval-triggered warrant clock, but the Sopharma arbitration and NCE exclusivity question remain unresolved, keeping the stock uninvestable.

    Latest note · Aug 15, 2026 ↗ · watching since Aug 12, 2026
  • Q2 cash of $1.02B is positive but management's Q3-2028 runway guide creates a dilution countdown that barely clears the mid-2028 ZENITH topline, reinforcing the wait-for-better-entry case for new money.

    Latest note · Aug 14, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jun 6, 2026
  • Cash down to $125.9M with going-concern language still present and burn accelerating as a third Phase 3 (ALTO) launches; a capital raise is the most predictable unannounced event on the calendar, and DAYBREAK in September gates everything — BLA, platform thesis, and financing terms.

    Latest note · Aug 14, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jan 29, 2026
  • GNLX Genelux Watch

    Q2 burn accelerated to $9.6M against $18.7M total cash with the Phase 3 topline still guided to 2H 2026, tightening the runway squeeze but leaving the scientific thesis and watch-list stance unchanged.

    Latest note · Aug 14, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jul 15, 2026
  • Science unchanged but funding quality weakened — burn not moderating at ~$70M/quarter, ATM issuance tripling, and IP pledged as collateral on Hercules debt; thesis still resolves at Q2 2027 4FRONT-1 readout.

    Latest note · Aug 14, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jul 3, 2026
  • Despite compelling mechanism and tolerability data, the Phase 2 missed its primary endpoint, the Phase 3 NI margin is undisclosed, and the trial is unfunded against a going-concern conclusion, making the risk/reward insufficient to open a position.

  • Resolution of the Seven and Eight licensor dispute removes a key tail risk, but accelerating burn (77% YoY) widens the dilution gap and no efficacy data has changed; the randomized melanoma interim remains the sole re-rating trigger.

    Latest note · Aug 14, 2026 ↗ · watching since Aug 5, 2026
  • WATCH maintained with downgraded urgency as 39.6M warrants at $2.65 are now exercisable creating a structural ceiling, NDA slipped to mid-2027, and another financing raise is likely before the key catalyst.

    Latest note · Aug 14, 2026 ↗ · watching since May 7, 2026
  • Adage Capital's 9.99% filing narrows the sponsorship gap in the bear case, but with ~half the position in deep-OTM warrants and no human ADPKD efficacy, the stance remains Watch with piqued interest.

    Latest note · Aug 13, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jun 24, 2026
  • INSM Insmed Watch

    Elite BRINSUPRI launch is already priced at 15-17x forward revenue; TPIP carries $6B of the peak estimate with no Phase 3 data, no readout for 18+ months, and an approved dry-powder competitor already taking share — may move to Buy if a Q4 2026/Q1 2027 print confirms 12-month persistence.

  • ANNX Annexon Watch

    ARCHER II adds Month 24 dual primary endpoint meaning Q4 2026 delivers only a DMC verdict with full data potentially in Q1 2027; catalyst diffusion and $117.8M ATM overhead keep the stock on watch despite improved GBS outlook and runway extended into 2028.

    Latest note · Aug 13, 2026 ↗ · watching since Feb 27, 2026
  • Naming PMR as the third indication — where both IL-17 and B-cell arms have randomized clinical support — narrows the bear case modestly, but the BAFF contribution in HS remains unproven and Q4 2026 remains a binary with the stock more than tripled off its lows.

    Latest note · Aug 12, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jun 30, 2026
  • REGAL still at 78/80 events after three months of silence; readout timing now indefinite; stock at $11 with doubled downside risk vs. May; fortress balance sheet intact but premium for the binary has a time cost; watch for existing holders to consider trimming.

    Latest note · Aug 12, 2026 ↗ · watching since Dec 29, 2025
  • IZAR-1 Phase 3 win de-risks the PsA franchise but the de-risking event remains the Section 14 label content at BLA acceptance in late November 2026; the blinded placebo arm keeps the PsA delta unpriceable.

    Latest note · Aug 12, 2026 ↗ · watching since Aug 11, 2026
  • IMUX Immunic Watch

    Watch list maintained as runway is now explicitly bridged to late 2027 and the commercial/regulatory team is complete, but fenebrutinib, generic Aubagio, the 5% royalty stack, and dilution overhang are unchanged, and the stock at $15.48 has compressed the pre-data asymmetry considerably.

    Latest note · Aug 12, 2026 ↗ · watching since May 28, 2026
  • FDA acceptance with April 2027 PDUFA date is procedurally de-risking but EV expanded to ~$2.5B on a standard review timeline, stretching valuation further while commercial risk is time-amplified by nine more months of incumbent entrenchment.

    Latest note · Aug 12, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jun 22, 2026
  • Solvency risk is retired with $62M cash and runway into mid-2028, but zero new human efficacy data, Phase 2b slipped a quarter, and the stock is up 37% since June on balance sheet re-rating alone — the entry point has worsened without any improvement in probability of clinical success.

    Latest note · Aug 12, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jun 18, 2026
  • Balance sheet, trial, and M&A logic remain intact and PTAB institution improves the patent overhang picture, but efficacy case is still single-arm open-label and leadership bench will be substantially new by the time the interim prints.

    Latest note · Aug 12, 2026 ↗ · watching since May 30, 2026
  • Internal combo doublets now dosing in patients and cash runway intact through 2H catalyst window, but efficacy dataset is unchanged and the 2H 2026 readouts remain the binary test.

    Latest note · Aug 12, 2026 ↗ · watching since Apr 20, 2026
  • NKTX Nkarta Watch

    Q2 shows no efficacy data, faster burn, and a manufacturing footprint reduction, but outpatient dosing is now operational and cash still exceeds market cap; thesis intact pending H2 2026 readout.

    Latest note · Aug 11, 2026 ↗ · watching since May 26, 2026
  • The mechanism is de-risked and the chemistry is elite, but at ~$4.35B market cap the risk/reward has already been harvested on 57- and 20-patient open-label cohorts with managed denominators; revisit on the YE2026 vascular anomaly regulatory update or a ReDiscover-2 enrollment-completion announcement.

  • Both Alzheimer's catalysts pushed to Q4 2026, VY1706 first human safety data slipped to early 2027, ATM tapped into weakness at ~$3.61, and cash down to $148.8M; proxy waiting game extended.

    Latest note · Aug 7, 2026 ↗ · watching since Mar 17, 2026
  • Second IDMC pass at 80% exposure meaningfully reduces the safety tail and extends runway to Q1 2029, but the central PVR→6MWD scientific bet remains unresolved and the relaxin graveyard still demands humility ahead of the APEX binary.

    Latest note · Aug 7, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jun 9, 2026
  • Phase 3 initiation slipped from mid-2026 to upon IND clearance due to CMC manufacturing delays, funding language softened, and no efficacy readout is expected in the next twelve months; Watch List maintained with clock reset as the next event is an IND filing, not data.

    Latest note · Aug 7, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jun 23, 2026
  • Q2 brought competent execution and improved catalyst clarity (US BLA now on calendar for Q1 2027) but neither named de-risker has landed — the going-concern flag remains and the MHRA MAA submission is still ahead — so the watch stance is maintained.

    Latest note · Aug 7, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jul 21, 2026
  • Encouraging early safety and biomarker data from C-1300-02 are positive but uncontrolled; the binary randomized readout has slipped to early 2027, adding two quarters of dilution risk with no change in the fundamental concerns that kept this off a Buy.

    Latest note · Aug 7, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jun 13, 2026
  • Watch List maintained as the CBP degrader IND timeline was withdrawn due to a CRO operational failure, weakening the wholly-owned pipeline leg, while FHD-909 remains a Lilly-controlled black box with no human efficacy data or readout date.

    Latest note · Aug 7, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jul 8, 2026
  • Term loan maturity pushed to 2029 removes the forced-financing cliff, but the cure thesis still rests on an unstarted NUC-withdrawal readout against an approvable competitor, keeping the stance on Watch List.

    Latest note · Aug 7, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jul 17, 2026
  • Cash fell to $45.1M, new FDRR language signals FDA dialogue is not converging, pipeline initiations are unfunded and overdue, but AbbVie option remains alive and burn discipline extends the optionality runway.

    Latest note · Aug 7, 2026 ↗ · watching since Dec 17, 2025
  • Despite a de-risked mechanism and compelling early efficacy, the near-zero enterprise value, unreconciled enrollment language, and eGFR concerns in two of five LN patients make waiting for the 3Q/2026 22-patient readout the prudent call.

  • PCVX Vaxcyte Watch

    The Visp manufacturing suite is now certified for commercial operation, retiring one of four bear-case legs, but OPUS-1 must still clear a 0.667 noninferiority lower bound on 28 serotypes against two comparators with management-pre-announced misses, and the lot-to-lot study and ACIP remain unresolved.

    Latest note · Aug 6, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jul 27, 2026
  • Prodrug engineering is real and balance sheet funds the binary, but PDE4 failed its one controlled UC trial, Phase 2 doses are below the regimen that generated the clinical signal, and there is no issued U.S. patent under a ~$457M market cap.

  • Q2 update confirms balance sheet intact and EU approval advancing, but no U.S. NDA date disclosed and the single binary DSMB recommendation in Q1 2027 remains the only thing that matters for the U.S. thesis.

    Latest note · Aug 6, 2026 ↗ · watching since Aug 4, 2026
  • Second catalyst slip, ACH readout delayed a full quarter further behind infigratinib's NDA, burn running hotter, and stock already up 28% on no new efficacy data — asymmetry has narrowed; maintain Watch List ahead of September NMIBC CR readout.

    Latest note · Aug 5, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jun 11, 2026
  • Q2 beat and second guidance raise validate the commercial thesis, but at $46.17 — above the prior 52-week high — the easy entry has closed and the year-end SubQ Phase 3 topline remains the event worth sizing around.

    Latest note · Aug 4, 2026 ↗ · watching since Jun 3, 2026
  • Operational execution is tracking but LNP hepatotoxicity remains unproven at scale and the runway now leans on milestone-gated debt; the ERS late-breaking oral in September is a defined-event catalyst that may warrant only a starter position sized for a bad outcome.

    Latest note · Aug 4, 2026 ↗ · watching since Apr 24, 2026
  • FSHR biology is real but no objective response in four years, survival benchmark is misstated, and capital structure risks are material; wait for RECIST-confirmed responses from therapeutic-dose cohorts 5–7.

  • Despite a de-risked mechanism and strong balance sheet post-financing, the 21-patient efficacy signal, untested Phase 3 dose, primary endpoint outside FDA's qualified 24-month context of use, and 85% post-financing markup into a 26-month catalyst desert make this the wrong entry at the wrong price.

  • Near-cash EV with partnered Phase 3 royalty and Gilead option provides cushion, but the owned binary (COM701 monotherapy maintenance) rests on a post-hoc subgroup and thin single-agent data in a distrusted checkpoint class, warranting a watch rather than an immediate buy.

The full record

Category# callsBeat XBIAvg returnAvg vs XBI
Open buy calls 129 37% +17.8% -4.9
Core 58 40% +27.3% -0.7
Speculative 71 35% +10.1% -8.3
Open avoid calls 18 94% +24.6
Closed buy calls 17 24% +12.5% +1.2
Closed avoids 14 57% -4
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Hypothetical editorial track record, not a managed portfolio — past performance does not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.