Track record
Every buy, sell, and watch call I've published — scored against XBI, the biotech index.
As of Jun 12, 2026 · hypothetical editorial record, not investment advice
How to read this page
- Buy
- A buy call I published — Core = higher conviction.
- Spec buy
- A speculative buy — higher risk, smaller-size idea.
- Avoid
- A call to stay away — scored by the loss it sidestepped.
- Entry
- The stock's closing price the day I published the call.
- Now
- The latest available closing price.
- Return
- Percent change from Entry to Now (for avoids, the stock's move since the call).
- vs XBI
- XBI is the biotech index ETF. This is Return minus XBI's return over the same dates — the value added beyond just buying the index. For avoids, the loss saved vs holding XBI.
- Open / Closed
- Open = still live. Closed = realized; I flipped the call, calculated return based on that date.
Top buy calls
| Call | Buy | Now | Return | vs XBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYRE Spyre Therapeutics Buy | $31.53 | $80.79 | +156.2% | +148.2 |
| IBRX ImmunityBio Buy | $3.02 | $7.10 | +135.1% | +129.6 |
| ADAG Adagene Spec buy | $1.84 | $3.57 | +94% | +83.9 |
| ETON Eton Pharmaceuticals Buy | $18.22 | $31.59 | +73.4% | +67.8 |
| DRTS Alpha Tau Medical Spec buy | $5.90 | $9.85 | +66.9% | +61.1 |
| DFTX Definium Therapeutics Buy | $15.02 | $24.75 | +64.8% | +59.3 |
| CMPS COMPASS Pathways Buy | $7.85 | $12.08 | +53.9% | +48.5 |
| RNAC Cartesian Therapeutics Buy | $6.93 | $9.51 | +37.2% | +37.7 |
| TVTX Travere Therapeutics Buy | $40.29 | $52.04 | +29.2% | +32.1 |
| GHRS GH Research Buy | $15.75 | $21.12 | +34.1% | +27.3 |
What I told you to avoid
| Call | Since | Stock | Saved vs XBI |
|---|---|---|---|
| RVPH Reviva Pharmaceuticals Avoid | Dec 23, 2025 | -89.4% | +96.5 |
| GOSS Gossamer Bio Avoid | Mar 2, 2026 | -62.2% | +68 |
| CING Cingulate Avoid | Mar 30, 2026 | -16.4% | +29.1 |
| PCSA Processa Pharmaceuticals Avoid | Apr 13, 2026 | -24.4% | +25.7 |
| BCTX BriaCell Therapeutics Avoid | Jun 2, 2026 | -15.3% | +20 |
| PHIO Phio Pharmaceuticals Avoid | Apr 15, 2026 | -18.9% | +17 |
| VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Avoid | Feb 17, 2026 | -5.3% | +12.7 |
| MRKR Marker Therapeutics Avoid | Mar 16, 2026 | -2.1% | +10.1 |
Every call
| Call | Entry | Now | Return | vs XBI | Status | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYRE Spyre Therapeutics Buy | $31.53 | $80.79 | +156.2% | +148.2 | Open | Jan 13, 2026 |
| IBRX ImmunityBio Buy | $3.02 | $7.10 | +135.1% | +129.6 | Open | Jan 14, 2026 |
| RVPH Reviva Pharmaceuticals Avoid | $6.43 | $0.68 | -89.4% | +96.5 | Open | Dec 23, 2025 |
| ADAG Adagene Spec buy | $1.84 | $3.57 | +94% | +83.9 | Open | Jan 2, 2026 |
| GOSS Gossamer Bio Avoid | $0.43 | $0.16 | -62.2% | +68 | Open | Mar 2, 2026 |
| ETON Eton Pharmaceuticals Buy | $18.22 | $31.59 | +73.4% | +67.8 | Open | Feb 19, 2026 |
| ACTU Actuate Therapeutics Avoid | $6.49 | $2.89 | -55.5% | +62.2 | Closed May 12, 2026 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| DRTS Alpha Tau Medical Spec buy | $5.90 | $9.85 | +66.9% | +61.1 | Open | Jan 7, 2026 |
| DFTX Definium Therapeutics Buy | $15.02 | $24.75 | +64.8% | +59.3 | Open | Jan 14, 2026 |
| CMPS COMPASS Pathways Buy | $7.85 | $12.08 | +53.9% | +48.5 | Open | Feb 23, 2026 |
| RNAC Cartesian Therapeutics Buy | $6.93 | $9.51 | +37.2% | +37.7 | Open | May 27, 2026 |
| TVTX Travere Therapeutics Buy | $40.29 | $52.04 | +29.2% | +32.1 | Open | Apr 20, 2026 |
| CING Cingulate Avoid | $5.84 | $4.88 | -16.4% | +29.1 | Open | Mar 30, 2026 |
| GHRS GH Research Buy | $15.75 | $21.12 | +34.1% | +27.3 | Open | Jan 20, 2026 |
| CLYM Climb Bio Buy | $8.78 | $11.44 | +30.3% | +26.5 | Open | Apr 29, 2026 |
| NRXP NRX Pharmaceuticals Spec buy | $3.03 | $3.84 | +26.7% | +26.2 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| PCSA Processa Pharmaceuticals Avoid | $2.87 | $2.17 | -24.4% | +25.7 | Open | Apr 13, 2026 |
| TNGX Tango Therapeutics Buy | $24.87 | $30.94 | +24.4% | +25.2 | Open | May 14, 2026 |
| CCCC C4 Therapeutics Buy | $3.17 | $3.90 | +23% | +23.9 | Open | May 12, 2026 |
| IMVT Immunovant Buy | $26.08 | $33.62 | +28.9% | +23.9 | Open | Feb 2, 2026 |
| OVID Ovid Therapeutics Spec buy | $1.81 | $2.30 | +27.1% | +23 | Open | Jan 27, 2026 |
| FBIO Fortress Biotech Spec buy | $2.27 | $2.77 | +22% | +21.5 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| ARTV Artiva Biotherapeutics Spec buy | $6.80 | $8.54 | +25.6% | +21.4 | Open | Jun 8, 2026 |
| EXEL Exelixis Buy | $41.36 | $53.13 | +28.5% | +21.2 | Open | Jan 30, 2026 |
| BCTX BriaCell Therapeutics Avoid | $3.27 | $2.77 | -15.3% | +20 | Open | Jun 2, 2026 |
| PHIO Phio Pharmaceuticals Avoid | $1.32 | $1.07 | -18.9% | +17 | Open | Apr 15, 2026 |
| ABSI Absci Spec buy | $5.90 | $6.80 | +15.3% | +15.9 | Open | May 8, 2026 |
| HELP Cybin Avoid | $5.52 | $4.32 | -21.7% | +15.2 | Closed Mar 30, 2026 | Mar 9, 2026 |
| BIOA BioAge Labs Buy | $15.34 | $18.04 | +17.6% | +12.8 | Open | May 18, 2026 |
| VNDA Vanda Pharmaceuticals Avoid | $6.20 | $5.87 | -5.3% | +12.7 | Open | Feb 17, 2026 |
| ORKA Oruka Therapeutics Buy | $63.18 | $69.89 | +10.6% | +12.1 | Open | May 13, 2026 |
| AKTS Aktis Oncology Buy | $19.73 | $21.93 | +11.2% | +12 | Open | May 12, 2026 |
| CYDY CytoDyn Avoid | $0.37 | $0.32 | -13.5% | +11.1 | Closed Apr 27, 2026 | Apr 21, 2026 |
| MRKR Marker Therapeutics Avoid | $1.41 | $1.38 | -2.1% | +10.1 | Open | Mar 16, 2026 |
| KPRX Kiora Pharmaceuticals Spec buy | $2.32 | $2.55 | +9.9% | +9.4 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| MDNAF Medicenna Therapeutics Avoid | $0.40 | $0.34 | -14.9% | +8.9 | Closed May 19, 2026 | May 14, 2026 |
| CGEM Cullinan Therapeutics Buy | $12.57 | $13.70 | +9% | +7.3 | Open | Jan 22, 2026 |
| CGTX Cognition Therapeutics Spec buy | $1.08 | $1.21 | +12% | +6.8 | Open | Mar 9, 2026 |
| CGON CG Oncology Buy | $53.81 | $59.56 | +10.7% | +6.2 | Open | Jan 23, 2026 |
| APGE Apogee Therapeutics Buy | $83.29 | $88.33 | +6.1% | +6.1 | Open | May 5, 2026 |
| LGVN Longeveron Avoid | $0.84 | $0.78 | -6.6% | +5.9 | Open | May 11, 2026 |
| GLUE Monte Rosa Therapeutics Buy | $17.50 | $18.23 | +4.2% | +5.6 | Open | Apr 14, 2026 |
| NRIX Nurix Therapeutics Buy | $15.91 | $16.95 | +6.5% | +5.2 | Open | Apr 13, 2026 |
| VERA Vera Therapeutics Buy | $31.26 | $34.26 | +9.6% | +4.9 | Open | Jun 2, 2026 |
| CLNN Clene Buy | $5.18 | $5.84 | +12.7% | +4.8 | Open | Jan 12, 2026 |
| DYN Dyne Therapeutics Buy | $16.58 | $18.19 | +9.7% | +2.9 | Open | Jan 20, 2026 |
| IPSC Century Therapeutics Spec buy | $2.12 | $2.25 | +6.1% | +2 | Open | Jun 8, 2026 |
| GLSI Greenwich LifeSciences Spec buy | $23.67 | $24.06 | +1.6% | +1.4 | Open | Jun 4, 2026 |
| CRVS Corvus Pharmaceuticals Buy | $11.50 | $11.93 | +3.7% | -1.8 | Open | May 19, 2026 |
| CBIO Crescent Biopharma Buy | $18.52 | $17.92 | -3.2% | -2.5 | Open | May 11, 2026 |
| KYMR Kymera Therapeutics Buy | $87.35 | $86.20 | -1.3% | -2.8 | Open | Apr 9, 2026 |
| CATX Perspective Therapeutics Buy | $2.73 | $2.95 | +8.1% | -3.3 | Open | Jan 5, 2026 |
| RCUS Arcus Biosciences Spec buy | $23.86 | $23.80 | -0.3% | -3.3 | Open | Jun 3, 2026 |
| GPCR Structure Therapeutics Buy | $43.56 | $42.93 | -1.4% | -3.5 | Open | Apr 28, 2026 |
| ATHE Alterity Therapeutics Buy | $4.29 | $4.21 | -1.9% | -3.7 | Open | Jun 9, 2026 |
| KURA Kura Oncology Buy | $9.22 | $9.05 | -1.8% | -4.2 | Open | May 15, 2026 |
| VOR Vor Biopharma Spec buy | $14.63 | $14.36 | -1.8% | -4.2 | Open | May 15, 2026 |
| REPL Replimune Group Spec buy | $8.87 | $8.88 | +0.1% | -4.6 | Open | Jun 2, 2026 |
| CRDL Cardiol Therapeutics Spec buy | $1.02 | $1.03 | +1% | -4.7 | Open | Mar 2, 2026 |
| EYPT EyePoint Buy | $13.34 | $13.03 | -2.3% | -4.9 | Open | May 1, 2026 |
| CRVO CervoMed Avoid | $2.25 | $2.45 | +8.9% | -5.1 | Open | Jun 10, 2026 |
| CLDX Celldex Therapeutics Buy | $33.86 | $31.27 | -7.6% | -6.4 | Open | Apr 16, 2026 |
| ACRS Aclaris Therapeutics Buy | $4.47 | $4.32 | -3.4% | -7.1 | Open | Apr 29, 2026 |
| COGT Cogent Biosciences Buy | $37.00 | $33.10 | -10.5% | -7.6 | Open | Apr 20, 2026 |
| IXHL Incannex Healthcare Avoid | $3.31 | $3.83 | +15.7% | -7.7 | Open | Mar 16, 2026 |
| JANX Janux Therapeutics Buy | $14.11 | $13.56 | -3.9% | -7.7 | Open | Apr 29, 2026 |
| MDNAF Medicenna Therapeutics Spec buy | $0.33 | $0.31 | -6.4% | -8 | Open | May 22, 2026 |
| XENE Xenon Pharmaceuticals Buy | $57.40 | $52.10 | -9.2% | -9.5 | Open | May 4, 2026 |
| CYDY CytoDyn Spec buy | $0.32 | $0.29 | -9.4% | -9.9 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| NTLA Intellia Therapeutics Spec buy | $13.20 | $12.11 | -8.3% | -10.3 | Open | Apr 28, 2026 |
| TTRX Turn Therapeutics Spec buy | $6.42 | $6.04 | -5.8% | -10.6 | Open | Jun 2, 2026 |
| KYTX Kyverna Therapeutics Buy | $8.99 | $8.05 | -10.4% | -11 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| CRNX Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Buy | $37.23 | $34.47 | -7.4% | -11.2 | Open | Apr 2, 2026 |
| TSHA Taysha Gene Therapies Buy | $6.46 | $5.71 | -11.6% | -12.2 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| VIR Vir Biotechnology Buy | $8.99 | $8.61 | -4.2% | -12.2 | Open | Mar 25, 2026 |
| ATAI Atai Beckley Spec buy | $4.19 | $3.92 | -6.4% | -12.4 | Open | Dec 24, 2025 |
| INAB IN8bio Spec buy | $1.56 | $1.43 | -8.3% | -13.1 | Open | Jun 2, 2026 |
| ARTV Artiva Biotherapeutics Spec buy | $10.60 | $8.55 | -19.3% | -13.4 | Closed May 19, 2026 | May 11, 2026 |
| MAIA MAIA Biotechnology Spec buy | $1.31 | $1.30 | -0.8% | -13.4 | Open | Mar 30, 2026 |
| LGVN Longeveron Spec buy | $0.89 | $0.84 | -5.6% | -14.4 | Closed May 11, 2026 | Mar 16, 2026 |
| STRO Sutro Biopharma Spec buy | $33.59 | $28.80 | -14.3% | -14.8 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| BCTX BriaCell Therapeutics Spec buy | $4.47 | $3.76 | -15.9% | -15.6 | Closed Feb 23, 2026 | Feb 2, 2026 |
| ALLO Allogene Therapeutics Spec buy | $2.25 | $1.90 | -15.6% | -16.1 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| ANAB AnaptysBio Spec buy | $66.59 | $56.07 | -15.8% | -16.4 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| VTVT vTv Therapeutics Spec buy | $36.41 | $32.77 | -10% | -16.8 | Open | Feb 4, 2026 |
| CRBU Caribou Biosciences Spec buy | $1.94 | $1.59 | -17.8% | -17.1 | Open | May 8, 2026 |
| HELP Cybin Spec buy | $6.73 | $5.52 | -18% | -18.1 | Closed Mar 9, 2026 | Feb 23, 2026 |
| JBIO Jade Biosciences Spec buy | $17.75 | $15.34 | -13.6% | -18.3 | Open | Jun 2, 2026 |
| SANA Sana Biotechnology Spec buy | $3.26 | $2.68 | -17.8% | -18.4 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| CUE Cue Biopharma Spec buy | $28.62 | $24.53 | -14.3% | -19 | Open | Jun 2, 2026 |
| SMMT Summit Therapeutics Buy | $15.94 | $14.01 | -12.1% | -19.3 | Open | Feb 20, 2026 |
| AKBA Akebia Therapeutics Spec buy | $1.16 | $0.93 | -20.3% | -19.6 | Open | May 8, 2026 |
| IMMX Immix Biopharma Buy | $10.66 | $8.45 | -20.7% | -19.9 | Open | May 12, 2026 |
| DBVT DBV Technologies Buy | $20.27 | $17.41 | -14.1% | -20.3 | Open | Dec 22, 2025 |
| IMTX Immatics Buy | $10.45 | $9.38 | -10.2% | -20.3 | Open | Jan 2, 2026 |
| RYTM Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Buy | $102.59 | $88.38 | -13.9% | -20.6 | Open | Jan 20, 2026 |
| ENTA Enanta Pharmaceuticals Spec buy | $13.86 | $11.90 | -14.1% | -21.5 | Open | Feb 17, 2026 |
| CABA Cabaletta Bio Buy | $3.83 | $3.01 | -21.4% | -21.6 | Open | May 4, 2026 |
| ABOS Acumen Pharmaceuticals Buy | $2.71 | $2.37 | -12.5% | -22.5 | Open | Mar 23, 2026 |
| SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics Spec buy | $17.79 | $15.31 | -13.9% | -22.8 | Open | Feb 13, 2026 |
| ERAS Erasca Spec buy | $11.56 | $9.11 | -21.2% | -24.6 | Closed Apr 29, 2026 | Feb 11, 2026 |
| RCKT Rocket Pharmaceuticals Spec buy | $3.48 | $2.75 | -21% | -24.8 | Open | Apr 29, 2026 |
| BMEA Biomea Fusion Spec buy | $1.53 | $1.17 | -23.5% | -25.5 | Open | Apr 28, 2026 |
| SGMT Sagimet Biosciences Spec buy | $8.75 | $6.48 | -25.9% | -27.9 | Open | Apr 28, 2026 |
| KTTA Pasithea Therapeutics Buy | $0.77 | $0.59 | -23.2% | -28 | Open | May 18, 2026 |
| VKTX Viking Therapeutics Buy | $36.41 | $28.75 | -21% | -28.2 | Open | Dec 23, 2025 |
| OCGN Ocugen Spec buy | $1.65 | $1.21 | -26.7% | -28.4 | Open | Jan 22, 2026 |
| ARVN Arvinas Spec buy | $10.78 | $7.58 | -29.7% | -29.9 | Open | May 4, 2026 |
| ACRV Acrivon Therapeutics Buy | $1.93 | $1.48 | -23.3% | -31.5 | Open | Jan 8, 2026 |
| FBRX Forte Biosciences Buy | $26.44 | $17.56 | -33.6% | -37.5 | Open | Apr 6, 2026 |
| LRMR Larimar Therapeutics Buy | $5.23 | $3.47 | -33.7% | -39.4 | Open | Mar 2, 2026 |
| CTMX CytomX Therapeutics Spec buy | $4.46 | $3.01 | -32.5% | -42.4 | Open | Mar 23, 2026 |
| GRCE Grace Therapeutics Spec buy | $3.83 | $2.30 | -39.9% | -44.2 | Closed Apr 24, 2026 | Jan 26, 2026 |
| IMRX Immuneering Spec buy | $6.66 | $4.19 | -37.1% | -45.5 | Open | Dec 29, 2025 |
| ALT Altimmune Spec buy | $4.09 | $2.61 | -36.2% | -47.5 | Open | Jan 5, 2026 |
| QURE uniQure Avoid | $17.99 | $27.57 | +53.3% | -48 | Open | Mar 9, 2026 |
| ERAS Erasca Avoid | $9.11 | $14.05 | +54.2% | -50.4 | Open | Apr 29, 2026 |
| NGEN NervGen Pharma Spec buy | $3.85 | $1.92 | -50.1% | -50.7 | Open | Apr 27, 2026 |
| OMER Omeros Buy | $15.71 | $8.74 | -44.4% | -51.4 | Open | Dec 26, 2025 |
| TARA Protara Therapeutics Spec buy | $7.43 | $3.90 | -47.5% | -52.9 | Open | Feb 23, 2026 |
| GANX Gain Therapeutics Buy | $3.19 | $1.68 | -47.3% | -53.6 | Open | Dec 22, 2025 |
| LXEO Lexeo Therapeutics Spec buy | $8.12 | $4.37 | -46.2% | -54.1 | Open | Jan 12, 2026 |
| VRDN Viridian Therapeutics Spec buy | $29.17 | $16.35 | -43.9% | -54.8 | Open | Feb 5, 2026 |
| MIST Milestone Pharmaceuticals Buy | $2.35 | $1.27 | -45.8% | -55.1 | Open | Dec 15, 2025 |
| WVE Wave Life Sciences Buy | $13.44 | $5.87 | -56.3% | -64.7 | Open | Mar 3, 2026 |
| GUTS Fractyl Health Buy | $2.09 | $0.85 | -59.3% | -65.2 | Open | Jan 7, 2026 |
| REPL Replimune Group Avoid | $4.76 | $8.87 | +86.3% | -87.6 | Closed Jun 2, 2026 | Apr 10, 2026 |
No calls match these filters.
On my watch list
- AGMB Agomab Therapeutics Watch
Best-executed organ-restriction PK package in the ALK5 space with real white-space indication and fully-funded balance sheet, but efficacy is exploratory POC with the powered readout years out and rising competition in both indications.
- INKT MiNK Therapeutics Watch
Differentiated off-the-shelf iNKT biology and a cleanly randomized ARDS readout in a no-approved-therapy market make it worth watching, but going-concern balance sheet, Agenus control, absent lead-asset composition-of-matter IP, and lack of specialist smart money keep it off a Buy until H2 2026 data de-risks the platform.
- ELTX Elicio Therapeutics Watch
Differentiated science and imminent binary catalyst, but zero randomized efficacy data, going-concern balance sheet, continuous ATM dilution, and a newly validated pan-RAS competitor in the same adjuvant trial make this a speculation to observe rather than underwrite until AMPLIFY-7P DFS data reads out.
- TYRA Tyra Biosciences Watch
Elite selective FGFR3 chemistry with a fortress balance sheet and blue-chip backing, but fast-follower in ACH, J&J-dominated NMIBC, IC50-not-IC90 dosing, and zero Phase 2 efficacy in hand; revisit after August IR NMIBC readout.
- ZBIO Zenas BioPharma Watch
De-risked BLA-stage orphan asset but second-mover commercial disadvantage, China CMO tail risk, stacked royalties, and binary SLE readout on a post-hoc subgroup keep it on the watch list until BLA acceptance and SunStone clarity.
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The 99.4% approval of the 240M authorized share charter amendment gives management full legal authority to dilute through binary catalysts, and the stock's 12.4% decline confirms the market is pricing in the dilution skew.
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APEX fully enrolled with baseline PVR matching CADENCE exactly, crystallizing the binary readout to early Q1 2027, but the thesis is unchanged — relaxin graveyard and CADENCE 6MWD miss remain the bear case; no new reason to enter ahead of the coin-flip.
- CNTB Connect Biopharma Watch
Differentiated rapid-onset IL-4Rα mechanism with genuine acute-exacerbation white space, but the entire equity hinges on one funded-but-binary mid-2026 Seabreeze readout against subgroup-heavy data and a China-structure/Phase-3-dilution overhang.
- NKTR Nektar Therapeutics Watch
First-in-class Treg biology and fortress balance sheet are real, but middling efficacy, a post-hoc-rescued AA primary, and a competitor a full development cycle ahead in AD do not justify chasing a 570% move at current levels.
- OCS Oculis Holding Watch
Post-flagship-failure name with substantial net cash and regulatory tailwinds on two remaining binary assets, but datasets are too thin and management credibility too damaged to justify opening a position now.
- CGEN Compugen Watch
Near-cash EV with partnered Phase 3 royalty and Gilead option provides cushion, but the owned binary (COM701 monotherapy maintenance) rests on a post-hoc subgroup and thin single-agent data in a distrusted checkpoint class, warranting a watch rather than an immediate buy.
- TGTX Tg Therapeutics Watch
SubQ Phase 3 odds improved after positive Phase 1 PK/PD/safety data, but at $40.11 the stock is back in the upper half of its range and the accumulation-on-pullbacks logic still applies; the real re-rating catalyst is the YE2026/early-2027 Phase 3 topline.
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BLA Class 1 resubmission filed on schedule with PDUFA now targeting ~August 1; thesis is tracking and the binary still skews positive, but traders should continue trimming into strength with structural dilution supply (repriced warrants + ATM) capping the upside.
- NVCT Nuvectis Pharma Watch
Differentiated SRC/YES1 conformational-locking mechanism with real PD receipts, but no human efficacy data yet, a single patent family expiring 2036, and a binary summer 2026 readout colliding with a near-certain dilutive raise — wait for data and financing before committing capital.
- ACIU AC Immune Watch
Inexpensive pharma-validated misfolded-protein platform with M&A optionality and adequate balance sheet, but wholly-owned value drivers have not cleared an efficacy bar and 2026 readouts are biomarker signals, not proof.
- BCAX Bicara Therapeutics Watch
Genuinely de-risked small cap with elite balance sheet, real global Phase 3, Breakthrough designation, and live takeout optionality, but efficacy thesis remains single-arm and open-label with a better-funded competitor ahead.
- PEPG PepGen Watch
Despite differentiated PPMO chemistry and a $12B M&A precedent, the 5 mg/kg MAD efficacy miss, unresolved FDA partial clinical hold, kidney safety signal, loaded $400M shelf, and late competitive position warrant watching rather than buying ahead of the 2H 2026 binary readout.
- IMUX Immunic Watch
Strong smart-money signal and credible binary catalyst are offset by a Phase 2 PMS primary miss, generic Aubagio as pricing floor, fenebrutinib positive Phase 3 in both indications, and heavy warrant plus royalty overhang; wait for ENSURE readouts before committing capital.
- NKTX Nkarta Watch
Differentiated outpatient CAR-NK thesis with credible biology and cash runway into 2028+, but zero autoimmune efficacy data and a stacked autologous CAR-T competitor field require seeing real H2 2026 data before sizing up.
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Differentiated CD19 CAR T with real revenue and multiple H2 2026 catalysts, but a stacked royalty burden and near-certain 2027 dilution event prevent a clean buy recommendation.
- EVMN Evommune Watch
Strong science and smart-money backing, but the CSU comparator bar (barzolvolimab 51% UAS7=0) is the highest in history and licensed economics cap M&A upside, warranting a watch stance with disciplined pre-binary trim if accumulating.
- CHRS Coherus Oncology Watch
The mid-2026 casdozokitug Phase 2 randomized readout is a 50/50 binary; the author recommends waiting for data rather than committing capital pre-readout, despite asymmetric upside potential.
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REGAL is at 78/80 events with readout weeks away, financing risk is fully resolved at ~$114.6M cash, and the binary setup is unchanged — hold into the imminent data with position sizing as the key variable.
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Dilution gap closed at $5.61/share with runway extended to H1 2028, Phase 3 IMPACT DUCHENNE now dosing, and CMC de-risked via FDA potency assay alignment — downside of an unfavorable FDA decision is materially smaller, making accumulation on weakness attractive ahead of the binary.
- PMVP PMV Pharmaceuticals Watch
ORR drifted down to 44% confirmed as denominator grew and dilution is now a mathematical certainty, but NEJM validation and durable responses keep the science thesis intact — wait for the inevitable raise to clear before entering.
- SPRB Spruce Biosciences Watch
Science and capital runway are solid but position initiation should wait for CMC/PPQ batch manufacturing confirmation before the Q4 2026 BLA submission.
- KOD Kodiak Sciences Hold
Going-concern disclosure signals an imminent dilutive raise before the September DAYBREAK readout; science remains intact but risk/reward is no longer asymmetric at current levels, and any remaining position should be sized as a binary bet.
- ANNX Annexon Watch
ATM already tapped and upsized to $150M, GBS FDA pushback more explicit, and ARCHER II narrowed to Q4 2026; dilution risk is now empirical and the cleanest entry remains a pullback after FORWARD data clarifies the GBS path.
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De-risking signals (Shih settlement, EAP launch, clean balance sheet) are building ahead of the Q3 2026 LUCIDITY readout, but the binary still dominates and the watch-list stance is unchanged.
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Post-Hercules payoff effective cash drops to ~$50M and a securities class action adds new overhang, but burn rate has collapsed, AbbVie option remains live, and Q2 Type A meeting is still the defining catalyst; Watch maintained.
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Science is compelling and bankruptcy risk is removed, but the complex warrant-heavy capital structure creates a structural price ceiling and execution risk warrants patience before taking a position.
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GTX-102 lower-limb-weakness safety risk meaningfully reduced by 3-year clean LTE data, but Bedford CMC risk unchanged and cash runway tightened; wait for August 23 DTX401 PDUFA before entering.
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FDA Fast Track for BBO-11818, a strategic C-suite reshuffle signaling M&A/pivotal trial positioning, and supportive AACR preclinical data modestly strengthen the thesis, but the clinical n remains too small to change the watch stance ahead of 2H 2026 data.
- BEAM Beam Therapeutics Watch
The base editing science is compelling and the balance sheet is strong, but the smart move is to wait for FDA reaction to Grade 4 ALT elevations in the BEAM-302 multi-dose cohort before taking a heavy position.
The full record
| Category | # calls | Beat XBI | Avg return | Avg vs XBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open buy calls | 103 | 34% | -0.6% | -4.5 |
| Core | 58 | 41% | +4.6% | +0.7 |
| Speculative | 45 | 24% | -7.3% | -11.3 |
| Open avoid calls | 13 | 69% | — | +13.4 |
| Closed buy calls | 6 | 0% | -20% | -21.7 |
| Closed avoids | 5 | 80% | — | +2 |
Hypothetical editorial track record, not a managed portfolio — past performance does not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.